First published in the National on 11th October

WITH the SNP gathering in Aberdeen for their conference this weekend, all attention will be on next year’s Holyrood election.

The sense of invincibility that surrounded the party for so long was punctured by Labour’s victory in the 2024 General Election, which seemed to clear Anas Sarwar’s path to Bute House.

Labour since then have seen their momentum stall. Combine this with the emergence of Reform as a genuine contender, and we’ve not had a Scottish election so unpredictable since 2011.

Scotland is not insulated from global political trends and, as has been the case elsewhere, the cost of living will be a key driver in this election. That can be tricky ground for incumbent parties of government – as both the SNP and Labour are.

But success in politics is never built on just a retail offer or a narrow calculation of who will put more pounds back in your pocket. You win an election by building a big tent of support, which requires trust, substance, and – crucially – speaking to what people value.

As an environmental campaigner, I know that this last point matters.

There are some who will argue that government must step back on environmental issues in order to win over the wider public, especially when finances are tight.

They are wrong. They’re wrong on the science, which is clear we need more action, not less. They’re wrong on the economics, with the cost of inaction far higher than the cost of acting today.

But they’re also wrong on what voters feel.

If you want to speak to people’s values, there is very little that people value more than the little bit of the planet they call home.

That’s true for all voters, but it’s even more true for the voters who are likely to decide this election – those who might be persuaded to vote for the SNP or Labour.

Political commentators, and some politicians, often misunderstand this. Climate deniers and those who wish to rip up protections for nature have deep wallets, loud megaphones, and plenty of willing allies in the press.

But they speak for a vanishingly small constituency in the wider public. Support for action on climate is the mainstream position across the UK. Concern for nature is, if anything, even more widespread.

The environment is something that people value deeply and are concerned about – and, as issues like fracking and sewage pollution have shown, can quickly become politically toxic for those caught on the wrong side of public opinion.

As a coalition of environmental charities, Scottish Environment LINK asked the polling experts Diffley Partnership to test how different environmental positions – from radical action, to abandoning net zero – would play out amongst the voters the parties are trying to win.

This research is absolutely clear that those seeking power would abandon their environmental commitments at their peril.

For both the SNP and Labour, almost half of their 2024 voters say they’re unlikely to back a party unwilling to take action on the environment – and our research also found that there is a substantial overlap between both parties’ potential voter bases.

To John Swinney’s credit, he has put climate front and centre as a government priority and committed to introducing new legal targets for nature ahead of the election.

With four out of five SNP voters saying that the environment matters to them when deciding how to vote, he is wise to do so.

In fact, there have been vocal supporters of the environment across all political parties.

But this has been a parliament of mixed success on delivery, and keeping together a winning coalition of voters will depend on those supporters trusting they’ll see action, not words.

LINK members have set out an ambitious but achievable manifesto for nature, and we know that our key asks – like expanding our native woodlands, protecting our seas, and cleaning up our rivers – are overwhelmingly popular with voters.

It’s up to our leaders – across all political parties – to live up to the challenge of delivering.